Materials impact on the EU’s competitiveness of the renewable energy, storage and e-mobility sectors: Wind power, solar photovoltaic and battery technologies

In the context of the decarbonisation of the European energy system and achieving the long-term climate change mitigation objectives, this study assesses the impact of materials on the competitiveness of the EU’s clean energy technology industry, taking into account several factors such as security and concentration of materials supply, price volatility, cost intensity in the technology, etc. These factors, together with the EU’s resilience to potential materials supply disruptions and mitigation possibilities, have been analysed for three technologies, namely wind turbines, solar PV panels and batteries. Wind power was found to be the most vulnerable technology in relation to materials supply, followed by solar PV and batteries. From the materials perspective, several opportunities have been identified to improve the EU’s industrial competitiveness with regard to the deployment of these technologies, such as boosting recycling businesses in the EU, promoting research and innovation, diversifying the supply and strengthening and increasing downstream manufacturing in the EU.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Raw materials demand for wind and solar PV technologies in the transition towards a decarbonised energy system

Raw materials are essential to securing a transition to green energy technologies and for achieving the goals outlined in the European Green Deal. To meet the future energy demand through renewables, the power sector will face a massive deployment of wind and solar PV technologies. As result, the consumption of raw materials necessary to manufacture wind turbines and photovoltaic panels is expected to increase drastically in the coming decades. However, the EU industry is largely dependent on imports for many raw materials and in some cases is exposed to vulnerabilities in materials supply. These issues raise concerns on the availability of some raw materials needed to meet the future deployment targets for the renewable energy technologies. This study aims at estimating the future demand for raw materials in wind turbines and solar PV following several decarbonisation scenarios. For the EU, the materials demand trends were built on the EU legally binding targets by 2030 and deployment scenarios targeting a climate-neutral economy by 2050. At a global level, the generation capacity scenarios were selected based on various global commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy efficiency. Alongside the power generation capacity, the materials demand calculations considered three more factors such as the plant lifetime, sub-technology market share and materials intensity. By evaluating and combining those factors, three demand scenarios were built characterised by low, medium and high materials demands. For wind turbines, the annual materials demand will increase from 2-fold up to 15-fold depending on the material and the scenario considered. Significant demand increases are expected for both structural materials - concrete, steel, plastic, glass, aluminium, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, and zinc - and technology specific materials such as rare earths and minor metals. In the EU the biggest increase in materials demand will be for onshore wind, with significantly lower variations for offshore wind, while on a global scale the situation is opposite. The most significant example is that of rare earths (e.g. dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium and terbium) used in permanent magnets-based wind turbines. In the most severe scenario, the EU annual demand for these rare earths can increase 6 times in 2030 and up to 15 times in 2050 compared to 2018 values. As consequence, by 2050, the deployment of wind turbines, according to EU decarbonisation goals, will require alone most of the neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium currently available to the EU market. In the high demand scenario, the global demand for rare earths in wind turbines could increase between 8-9 times in 2030 and 11-14 times in 2050 compared to 2018 values, a slightly lower increase compared to the EU. For solar PV technologies there are large differences in material demand between different scenarios, especially for those specific materials used in the manufacturing of PV cells. In the most optimistic case, improvements in material intensities can lead to a net decrease in materials demand. In the medium demand scenario, the balance between capacity deployment and the material intensities will result in a moderate increase in demand ranging from 3 to 8 fold for most materials. In the high demand scenario it is expected an increase in demand for all materials, for example a 4-fold increase for silver and up to a 12-fold increase for silicon in 2050. For cadmium, gallium, indium, selenium and tellurium the change in the demand will be more significant, up to a 40 times increase in 2050. The highest demand in 2050 is expected for germanium, which might increase up to 86 times compared to 2018 values. In the most severe conditions, the EU will require around 8 times in 2030 and up to 30 times in 2050 more structural materials such as used in frame and staffing materials compared to 2018 values. Instead, the EU annual demand for PV cells materials varies more broadly such as between 4 times for silver and 86 times for germanium in 2050 according to the high demand conditions. For silicon, the EU demand is expected to increase 2 times in 2030 and 4 times in 2050 under the medium demand scenario, and 7 times in 2030 and 13 times in 2050 under a high demand scenario. Considering both technologies, such high increases in materials demand will put additional stresses on the future availability of some raw materials. The EU transition to green energy technologies according to the current decarbonisation scenarios can be put in dangerous due to weaknesses in future supply security for several materials such as germanium, tellurium gallium, indium, selenium, silicon and glass for the solar PV and rare earths for the wind turbines technologies.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Assessment of potential bottlenecks along the materials supply chain for the future deployment of low-carbon energy and transport technologies in the EU: Wind power, photovoltaic and electric vehicles technologies, time frame: 2015-2030

The ambitious EU policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in combination with a significant adoption of low-carbon energy and transport technologies will lead to strong growth in the demand for certain raw materials. This report addresses the EU resilience in view of supply of the key materials required for the large deployment of selected low-carbon technologies, namely wind, photovoltaic and electric vehicles. A comprehensive methodology based on various indicators is used to determine the EU’s resilience to supply bottlenecks along the complete supply chain – from raw materials to final components manufacturing. The results revealed that, in 2015, the EU had low resilience to supply bottlenecks for dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium and graphite, medium resilience to supply of indium, silver, silicon, cobalt and lithium and high resilience to supply of carbon fibre composites. In the worst case scenario where no mitigation measures are adopted, the materials list with supply issues will grow until 2030. Indium, silver, cobalt and lithium will add up to the 2015 list. However, the probability of material supply shortages for these three low-carbon technologies might diminish by 2030 as a result of mitigation measures considered in the present analysis, i.e. increasing the EU raw materials production, adoption of recycling and substitution. In such optimistic conditions, most of the materials investigated are rated as medium or high resilience. The exceptions are neodymium and praseodymium in electric vehicles, for which the EU resilience will remain low.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Cobalt: demand-supply balances in the transition to electric mobility

The expansion of the electric vehicle market globally and in the EU will increase exponentially the demand for cobalt in the next decade. Cobalt supply has issues of concentration and risk of disruption, as it is mainly produced in Democratic Republic of Congo and China. According to our assessment these risks will persist in the future, likely increasing in the near term until 2020. Minerals exploration and EV batteries recycling can make for an improvement in the stability of cobalt supply from 2020 on, which together with the expected reduction in the use of cobalt, driven by substitution efforts, should help bridge the gap between supply and demand. Despite this, worldwide, demand is already perceived to exceed supply in 2020 and such a loss making trend is expected to become more consistent from 2025 on. In the EU, although the capacity to meet rising demand is projected to increase through mining and recycling activities, there is an increasing gap between endogenous supply and demand. The EU's supplies of cobalt will increasingly depend on imports from third countries, which underscores the need for deploying the Raw Materials Initiative and the Battery Alliance frameworks.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Relationship Between Land Surface Temperature and Imperviousness Density in The Urban Area of Iasi.

This study aims to quantify the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Imperviousness Density (IMD) in Iași. This was done through linear regression analysis which involves quantifying the relationship between one independent variable (explanatory, predictor) and one dependent variable (response). Thus, in our study, the dependent variable is represented by the LST product obtained through MODIS sensors in the period 2014-2018, while the independent variable is represented by IMD. The coefficient of determination (R2) obtained, higher than 0.5 for most of the year, indicates a statistically significant relationship between LST and IMD. The highest values of R2 are identified during the day spring and summer seasons. Thus, 70% and respectively 80% of the spatial variation of LST is explained by the distribution of IMD during these two seasons and the regression coefficients indicate, on the one hand, that the relationship between the two variables is a direct one (LST values increase at the same time with IMD values), and on the other hand, that the increase of LST corresponds to a gradient between 0.3-0.6 oC per 10% IMD. During the day, the lowest values of R2 appear in autumn and winter seasons, as a result of the local topography that facilitates the frequency of thermal inversions in this period of the year. On the other hand, during the night, R2 has values between 0.40 and 0.60, with the lowest values in the autumn season and the highest in the spring season, respectively

Materials dependencies for dual-use technologies relevant to Europe's defence sector

To support the European Commission in the preparation of future initiatives fostering the sustainability of strategic supply chains, this study was commissioned to assess bottlenecks in the supply of materials needed for the development of technologies important to Europe's defence and civil industries. The study focuses on five dual-use technology areas, namely advanced batteries, fuel cells, robotics, unmanned vehicles and additive manufacturing (3D printing). This report examines how these technologies could address specific military needs and their differences in relation to civil needs and identified opportunities for future defence research areas that could potentially serve as a basis for the design of research initiatives to be funded under the future European Defence Fund. Moreover, potential opportunities for common policy actions are also identified, notably: to strengthen Europe's position along the selected technologies’ supply chains, to facilitate collaboration between stakeholders, to increase industry involvement with special emphasis on SMEs, to improve existent legislation and increase synergies between civil and defence sectors to speed up progress in promising research areas.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Materials dependencies for dual-use technologies relevant to Europe's defence sector

In order to support the European Commission in the preparation of future initiatives fostering the sustainability of strategic supply chains, this study was commissioned to assess bottlenecks in the supply of materials needed for the development of technologies important to Europe's defence and civil industries. The study focuses on five dual-use technology areas, namely advanced batteries, fuel cells, robotics, unmanned vehicles and additive manufacturing (3D printing). The technologies are preselected on the basis of a previous study (EASME, 2017) that explored the dual-use potential of key enabling technologies in which Europe should strategically invest. In addition, this report examines how these technologies could address specific military needs and their differences in relation to civil needs and identified opportunities for future defence research areas that could potentially serve as a basis for the design of research initiatives to be funded under the future European Defence Fund. Moreover, potential opportunities for common policy actions are also identified, notably: to strengthen Europe's position in the selected technologies’ supply chains; to facilitate collaboration between stakeholders; to increase industry involvement with special emphasis on small and medium-sized enterprises; to improve existent legislation; and increase synergies between civil and defence sectors in order to speed up progress in promising research areas.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Raw materials scoreboard

The raw materials scoreboard is an initiative of the European Innovation Partnership (EIP) on Raw Materials. Its purpose is to provide quantitative data on the EIP's general objectives and on the raw materials policy context. It presents relevant and reliable information that can be used in policymaking in a variety of areas. The scoreboard will, for example, contribute to monitoring progress towards a circular economy, a crucial issue on which the European Commission recently adopted an ambitious action plan. The scoreboard will be published every two years

Critical Raw Materials and the Circular Economy – Background report

This report is a background document used by several European Commission services to prepare the EC report on critical raw materials and the circular economy, a commitment of the European Commission made in its Communication ‘EU action plan for the Circular Economy’. It represents a JRC contribution to the Raw Material Initiative and to the EU Circular Economy Action Plan. It combines the results of several research programmes and activities of the JRC on critical raw materials in a context of circular economy, for which a large team has contributed in terms of data and knowledge developments. Circular use of critical raw materials in the EU is analysed, also taking a sectorial perspective. The following sectors are analysed in more detail: mining waste, landfills, electric and electronic equipment, batteries, automotive, renewable energy, defence and chemicals and fertilisers. Conclusions and opportunities for further work are also presented.JRC.D.3-Land Resource

Assessment of the Methodology for Establishing the EU List of Critical Raw Materials - Annexes

This report presents the results of work carried out by the Directorate General (DG) Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission (EC), in close cooperation with Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (GROW), in the context of the revision of the EC methodology that was used to identify the list of critical raw materials (CRMs) for the EU in 2011 and 2014 (EC 2011, 2014). As a background report, it complements the corresponding Guidelines Document, which contains the “ready-to-apply” methodology for updating the list of CRMs in 2017. This background report highlights the needs for updating the EC criticality methodology, the analysis and the proposals for improvement with related examples, discussion and justifications. However, a few initial remarks are necessary to clarify the context, the objectives of the revision and the approach. As the in-house scientific service of the EC, DG JRC was asked to provide scientific advice to DG GROW in order to assess the current methodology, identify aspects that have to be adapted to better address the needs and expectations of the list of CRMs and ultimately propose an improved and integrated methodology. This work was conducted closely in consultation with the adhoc working group on CRMs, who participated in regular discussions and provided informed expert feedback. The analysis and subsequent revision started from the assumption that the methodology used for the 2011 and 2014 CRMs lists proved to be reliable and robust and, therefore, the JRC mandate was focused on fine-tuning and/or targeted incremental methodological improvements. An in depth re-discussion of fundamentals of criticality assessment and/or major changes to the EC methodology were not within the scope of this work. High priority was given to ensure good comparability with the criticality exercises of 2011 and 2014. The existing methodology was therefore retained, except for specific aspects for which there were policy and/or stakeholder needs on the one hand, or strong scientific reasons for refinement of the methodology on the other. This was partially facilitated through intensive dialogue with DG GROW, the CRM adhoc working group, other key EU and extra-EU stakeholders.JRC.D.3-Land Resource